Definition

A constituency, state, or demographic that reliably predicts overall election outcomes. Named after the practice of putting bells on lead sheep, these predictive regions supposedly show which way the flock is heading.

Example Usage

Ohio was considered a bellwether state for decades, voting for the presidential winner in nearly every election from 1896 to 2016.

Origin

From Middle English 'belle-wether,' the castrated ram (wether) wearing a bell who leads the flock.

Fun Fact

Vigo County, Indiana voted for the winning presidential candidate in 47 of 49 elections from 1888 to 2016, then finally broke its streak in 2020.

Source: Electoral analysis terminology

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