incrementality testing

Definition

An experimental method to measure whether your marketing actually caused an outcome or if it would have happened anyway. It's the uncomfortable question every CMO avoids: did we waste our money?

Example Usage

The incrementality test proved our Super Bowl ad generated exactly zero additional conversions that wouldn't have happened organically, but at least we got noticed at parties.

Origin

Borrowed from economic research methodology, popularized in digital marketing circa 2015

Fun Fact

Most marketers resist incrementality testing because they suspect it will reveal that half their budget accomplishes nothing, and they're usually right.

Source: Marketing science and econometrics literature

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